A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
